Regardless of how you view media coverage of the presidential election, there is one thing we can all agree on: Barack Obama receives far, far more media coverage than John McCain.
The McCain campaign portrays this as a fawning press corps engaged in media bias. However, increased media coverage also equals increased media scrutiny.
Yesterday, John McCain made millions of people crosseyed while listening to him trying to clarify his statement regarding the surge and the sunni awakening. This is what he said:
I don't know why I feel like crying, but these pictures move me. I just feel like Obama is evolving before my eyes. All these pictures from this trip have been quite moving...
Drudge just reported this:
OBAMA VISITS WESTERN WALL IN OLD CITY JERUSALEM... ARRIVES AT 5:08 AM LOCAL TIME [10:08 PM ET]... SUNRISE... SHOUTING MAN: 'JERUSALEM IS NOT FOR SALE, OBAMA'... MOB SCENE... CHAOS... BOWING HIS HEAD IN PRAYER... PLACES NOTE IN WALL... POSES FOR PHOTOS... LOTS OF SHOUTING... LEAVES 5:20 AM... DEVELOPING...
This is the first part of a new semi-regular series I will be doing called Focus on Florida. The purpose of this series is to give people insight into the politics of Florida and how Obama will make a play for Florida's 27 electoral votes. Despite Obama's poor showing in the delegate-less Florida primary, Florida is definitely a state than can go blue this year with enough effort from the Obama campaign. So far, the Obama campaign has risen to the challenge, and shown that they intend to make Florida a top priority this year.
The first diary in this series will be about winning in the I-4 corridor. For those of you unfamiliar with Florida geography, the I-4 corridor refers to the area in Florida that borders the 132 mile stretch of the I-4 highway, which runs spans central Florida from Tampa in the West to Daytona Beach in the East. For those of you familiar with Florida politics, you already know that the I-4 corridor is considered the holy grail of Florida politics. Win the I-4 corridor, and you're almost guaranteed to win the state. With North Florida and South Florida usually canceling each other out (North Florida going Republican, South Florida going Democratic), Central Florida is the key battleground area up for grabs in the state.
Those Ras numbers are a little goofy. That's a big shift in a single month, and one seen in few other states. Then we have ARG giving us the exact opposite trendline, though we all know ARG sucks you-know-what.
Thank heavens we can fall back on the composite, which is less sensitive to wild swings and outliers. And on that front, it's really, really, really tight: 45.7 McCain, 44.9 Obama.
Did Ras juice their (D) sample this month? Or did Obama hit upon the holy grail of Florida and Ohio swing-state politics? I don't know if I buy these particular numbers, but there's no need to. The composite actually feels quite right: 45.9 Obama, 42.4 McCain. Give Obama the twitchy, very nervous lead. Essentially, this one's tied (like Florida, like every fucking election cycle, it seems).
Update: I reversed the Ohio numbers. It's McCain that's up.
Over the last few days the McCain camp has started to get desperate with all the good news for Obama. So what does a campaign run by the architect of negative campaigning do?
Do some good 'ole negative campaigning of course. Here's a recap.
Barack Obama isn't the only one facing the dirtiest of race-baiting attacks this cycle.
Rep. Mark Kirk, locked in the race of his life with Orange to Blue candidate Dan Seals, has already made several highly controversial statements about Democratic candidates this cycle, most notably this one (emphasis added):
DON WADE: In fact, yesterday in a conference call, Barack Obama's advisers were asked, "If Osama bin Laden were caught, should he get to challenge his detention in U.S. courts?" And the advisers said that -- should that right to challenge detention that they get at Gitmo based on the Supreme Court ruling, should that be applied to bin Laden? -- and Obama's advisers said, "Yes."
KIRK: Yeah, and I would much rather have a policy where if we see Obama there's a shoot-on-sight order.
DON WADE: Well, okay. I'm with you, but I don't know whether that's going to make 67 -- well it might --
ROMA: I don't think Osama bin Laden -- no one ever sights him.
Kirk apologized to Senator Obama for the alleged mix-up. But he's back to making underhanded, oh-so-subtle statements about Democrats, this time about Dan Seals himself.
The Kirk campaign is going after Seals for being "unemployed".
"After losing his bid for Congress, Seals did not return to GE Finance and was unemployed," according to a Kirk campaign memo out last week. "Near the end of the 2006 campaign, Seals paid himself $25,000 out of his campaign donor funds — an act that is legal but strongly discouraging to donors ... in May, Seals filed his 2008 financial disclosure with the U.S. House showing only $3,300 in earned income through the first quarter of the year."
Unemployed? Seals has been working as a business consultant and lecturer at Northwestern University.
Most candidates for Congress take at least a leave of absence from work to focus on their campaigns, especially campaigns as hotly contested as this one. This is hardly a secret. Candidates frequently sacrifice promising careers out of a commitment to public service; praise to those who do.
Heaven forbid we actually have candidates for office who put public service ahead of their own personal gain. I understand why that concept may be foreign to Republicans, but still.
Regardless of the stupidity and irrelevance of the quote, it is wildly inaccurate, as the Seals campaign pointed out:
But Seals’ campaign said in a new memo distributed Monday that the incumbent is resorting "to demeaning and untruthful smears" reminiscent of slash-and-burn GOP operative Karl Rove.
"Mark Kirk entirely overlooks the fact that Dan Seals has worked as a business consultant and lecturer at Northwestern since 2006 and that Seals’ wife serves in a senior level corporate position," the Seals campaign memo states. "So the question is, what does Mark Kirk find so objectionable that the Seals family, like many families in the 10th district have two working parents?"
"It is this out-of-touch mentality that has guided Kirk’s votes against economic relief for hard-hit families and also driven Seals to devote himself full-time to campaigning, because now more than ever change is needed in Washington," the memo continues.
So why on earth would the Kirk campaign seek to target Seals as "unemployed", given the fact that it isn't true?
Why would they think that dog would hunt, given Seals' stellar professional and educational resume? In addition to his consulting work and teaching at Northwestern, Seals has worked as an English teacher and Senate aide, worked in marketing at Sprint and GE Finance, and holds degrees from Boston University, Johns Hopkins, and the University of Chicago.
Who do they think they're kidding with the "unemployed" line? Who do they think would buy the idea of Dan Seals as a freeloader?
Please tell me it doesn't have anything to do with Seals being African-American, running in an affluent white district.
Because if it does, Kirk is guilty of engaging in the most shameful and vile brand of politics imaginable.
For far too long, the extreme right-wing attack machine has been resorting to McCarthy-like tactics, like using pictures of Latin American dictators in campaign ads, to discredit Democratic candidates in Miami.
Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.
This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) was eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) rotated in to replace him this time.
Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.
Effectively unchanged from the last poll. Not sure if it fully captures the effect (if any) of Obama's visit abroad. Full text courtesy of WSJ.com is below:
UPDATE: Just over an hour after finalizing plans to visit an oil rig tomorrow, the McCain campaign has cancelled the visit.
"The meeting with Governor Jindal has been postponed and we are cancelling the trip to the rig due to weather," said spokesman MIchael Goldfarb.
McCain will now fly from Pennsylvania to Ohio. He had originally planned to fly tonight from Pennsylvania to New Orleans to be staged there for morning departure to the rig.
The campaign declined to comment any further about the quick decision to spike the trip other than to cite the weather.
Of course, we could take the McCain campaign at its word (ha!), and assume the cancellation is due to Hurricane Dolly.
Then again, it could be attributable to the unfortunate timing of an oil rig photo op in the Gulf region on top of this semi-breaking news:
(CNN) -- The U.S. Coast Guard has closed 29 miles of the Mississippi River from New Orleans southward after a tanker and a barge collided, spilling more than 400,000 gallons of fuel oil into the river.
The river, a major shipping route between the Midwest and Gulf of Mexico, could be closed for days during the cleanup, the Coast Guard said Wednesday.
Or the back-handed slap delivered by Bobby Jindal today, long touted as a possible VP candidate for McCain:
Wednesday morning, Jindal made perhaps his strongest statement yet regarding running for Vice President. Appearing on "FOX and Friends", Jindal said "I'm not going to be the vice presidential nominee or vice president."
Or maybe McCain decided to just stop fighting the media juggernaut surrounding Obama's overseas trip and lay low for a while. At this point, not saying anything or doing anything seems to be the wisest campaign strategy going, given his recent newsmaking.
CO-Sen: After a series of polls showing Democrat Mark Udall with a 9-10 point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, here's the first one in a while showing a closer race. From Rasmussen:
Udall (D) 47 (49)
Schaffer (R) 43 (40)
Udall isn't likely to win by 12-15 points, or anything like that. Despite myriad missteps and scandals from Schaffer, and despite a solid campaign for Udall so far, this race is far from over. Nevertheless, the edge is Udall's, and has been since the race began.
NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole's rather shocking attempt to get the high-profile AIDS relief bill named after her predecessor, the late Sen. Jesse Helms, has gone up in smoke.
Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., introduced an amendment to add Helms, the N.C. Republican who died July 4, to the title of a $48billion bill passed Wednesday in the Senate that triples spending for a much-acclaimed program that has treated and protected millions in Africa and elsewhere from the scourges of AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.
Her measure, though, didn't get a vote. The legislation was already named after two other lawmakers who fought against the spread of AIDS, former Reps. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., and Tom Lantos, D-Calif.
Dole's amendment came as a surprise, of course, because Helms spent a good bit of his life attacking AIDS victims:
Helms changed his view on foreign relief programs late in his Senate career, and teamed up with rock star Bono to help suffering populations overseas.
What many critics won't soon forget are Helms' comments like this one about people with AIDS in his own country: "There is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy."
This, too:
Dole's amendment, quietly introduced Monday, was first reported Wednesday by the Huffington Post. The news quickly spread on the blogosphere, where there was a proliferation of Helms quotes – such as 1995 comments to The New York Times, which quoted him as saying people got AIDS because of "deliberate, disgusting, revolting conduct."
Dole's legislative career in the Senate has been underwhelming by any analysis. And if a failed amendment to get an AIDS relief bill named after the most controversial politician in North Carolina's recent history is her best attempt at padding her resume, it may be time to consider someone else.
NH-Sen: Plenty of movement in the Jeanne Shaheen - John Sununu race. Two polls out, both from pollsters of questionable reliability. From ARG:
Shaheen (D) 58
Sununu (R) 36
Too good to be true, right? So witness UNH:
Shaheen (D) 46
Sununu (R) 42
Too bad to be true? It is. MissLaura has a healthy dose of skepticism about the partisan samples used in the UNH polling, which she articulates at Blue Hampshire. The UNH poll, FWIW, showed Paul Hodes losing by 20-25 points, in late 2006.
Gazing at these polls, CQ Politics shakes their head, shrugs their shoulders, and moves the race to "Leans Democratic".
MS-Sen: For a race widely considered a tossup, or leaning ever so slightly Republican, Mississippi's Senate race has been relatively quiet. But Mississippi remains one of the closest Senate races in the country in polling, and Barack Obama's campaign apparently intends to seriously contest the state, expecting to increase the black vote in Mississippi by over 30%.
The Politico has an excellent article noting that even if this does not turn Mississippi to Obama, it could win the election for Musgrove.
It is possible for a Mississippi Democrat to win in a statewide election, but it would likely require 30 percent of the white vote along with nearly the entire black vote. In 2003, Musgrove lost his reelection bid for governor to current Gov. Haley Barbour, a Republican. Musgrave took about 22 percent of the white vote, and lost the election 53 percent to 46 percent. In 1999, when Musgrove beat Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Parker in one of the closest races in Mississippi history, he performed even better among white voters, running well ahead of typical Democratic performance in Northeast Mississippi, a Republican stronghold.
The formula that has sometimes worked for Mississippi Democrats is directly at odds with Obama’s strategy for putting Southern states in play. Obama and his aides have made the case that Obama could increase black turnout so substantially — by 30 percent or more — that Southern states with large African-American populations would become competitive even without much of a change in the white turnout. But the math here is much harder than the Obama campaign asserts. If you take the 2004 presidential election results, increase the black vote by 30 percent and assume that the white vote stays the same, Obama would still lose Mississippi by more than 100,000 votes. And most analysts think that a 30 percent increase in the black vote is extremely optimistic. Obama will surely draw African-Americans to the polls in record numbers, but even a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in African-American votes would be historic. Add to that Obama’s problems in attracting white Mississippi voters even in the Democratic primary, where he attracted only a quarter of white Democrats.
What Musgrove hopes is that he can have the best of both worlds. He can run as a more conservative Democrat picking up moderate white voters, just as Travis Childers did in the House special election to replace Roger Wicker. But Musgrove might also benefit from Obama energizing and turning out the black vote even while Musgrove keeps his distance from the presidential nominee.
Musgrove is running even in the polls with incumbent Republican Roger Wicker, so even a small increase in the black vote in Mississippi would be a tremendous boon to Musgrove's campaign.
House Races
AK-AL: Kos wrote last night on the burgeoning scandal surrounding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Long story short, Palin apparently had a personal vendetta against a state trooper (and her former brother-in-law), Mike Wooten,who had been embroiled in a nasty divorce from Palin's sister. Over 25 investigations and complaints were filed against him in an attempt to get him fired. All were dismissed save one, which was deemed not serious enough to sack him.
Allegedly, Palin subsequently pressured public safety commissioner Walt Monegan to fire the brother-in-law. Monegan didn't, and was subsequently fired himself.
Finally, Monegan's replacement, Chuck Kopp, is highly controversial in his own right, having previously been charged with sexual harassment by an employee.
Palin is not up for reelection until 2010, but her lieutenant governor Sean Parnell represents the biggest threat to a Democratic pickup in the House race. Parnell's main claim to fame is his association with the formerly universally popular Governor, and this scandal may sink him. From Kos:
Parnell has tied his entire campaign thus far to Sarah Palin, using her popularity to boost his efforts. Today, word is that Parnell has pulled all ads with references to Palin. Her brand is mud.
Yet without her, Parnell isn't shit either. He's dead in the water. (Don) Young will win his primary in several weeks, and prove easy pickings for the Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, Palin was considered the fallback candidate in case Stevens got indicted. She no longer looks so hot. Nor can she be an asset for Stevens, Young, or any other Republican up and down the ballot in her state. Alaska's most popular Republican has essentially been neutralized. The "popular Republican" is now extinct in Alaska.
This could indeed kill Parnell's campaign, or seriously damage it. Parnell was Palin's golden boy; Palin's good name is his good name.
ID-01: Bill "Absolute Idiot" Sali has screwed up yet again. This time, he is one full week late in filing his FEC reports. His campaign claims technical difficulties:
I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file. I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.
Thing is, that was a full week ago. The response from Democrat Walt Minnick's campaign:
"Frankly it is outrageous that he has not filed this report, the people of Idaho deserve to know who his campaign contributors are. And for him to think that he can get away from not filing his federally mandated financial disclosure to the American people and Idahoan is really outrageous," said Foster.
AZ-03: The Arizona Democratic Party has a new ad opposing John Shadegg, on behalf of Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord:
TX-10: Democratic candidate (and Netroots Nation attendee) Larry Joe Doherty now sports the endorsements of the NEA, the Texas State Teachers' Association, and the national and state branches of the American Federation of Teachers. From a press release:
With membership of more than 4.6 million educators nationwide, these four front-line organizations represent the teachers who are working hard in our classrooms everyday. In fact, in 2007, McCaul received an 'F' rating from the NEA due to his lack of support for 'quality public education.'
"Larry Joe Doherty will take the fight to Washington on behalf of our educators, students and schools," said Louis Malfaro, President of Education Austin. "We are proud to support a candidate who understands that a strong commitment to our public education system is the key to long-term economic health for Texas kids, families, and businesses."
Doherty is committed to working with these organizations to fix No Child Left Behind (NCLB). Republican incumbent Michael McCaul has voted to strip $806 billion in vital funding from the program (HR 3010, 6/24/05, Vote #321).
"I will be a dependable voice for our nation's teachers and students instead of a rubber stamp for a party whose policies are out of touch with the American people," said Doherty.
LA-07: Democratic candidate Don Cravins, Jr., was just added to the DCCC's Emerging Races list:
"In the short time that Don Cravins has been in the race, he's put together a solid campaign and shown that he is committed to making things easier for middle class families in Southwest Louisiana," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen.
Cravins is the 21st candidate named to the DCCC's Emerging Races program. In each of these races, Democratic candidates have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns for change. As these campaigns continue to develop and demonstrate increasing strength, candidates will have an opportunity to qualify for the DCCC's Red to Blue program.
SD-AL: Congratulations to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and former Rep. Max Sandlin, who are expecting their first child together in December.
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Barack Obama is not the only presidential candidate who will be front-and-center in Berlin this Thursday. Well, sort of.
In the latest effort to counter-program Obama’s tour of Europe and the Middle East, the Republican National Committee will air radio ads promoting John McCain’s candidacy in three different Berlins: Berlin, New Hampshire; Berlin, Pennsylvania; and Berlin, Wisconsin.
Why don't McCain's campaign people just give Obama his week, let their candidate rest up, and come up with some brilliant PR moves next week when Obama's settled back in at home? Every day reveals more desperation, whining and stupid "pay attention to me!" gimmicks. This can't be helping the undecideds move his way, can it?
